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Denial of the Laws of Mathematics Proven Disastrous/However Not Too Late to Change
The Subliminal suggestion that there is a far less risk of contracting Covid19 from a trusting family member within the safe confines of your home, rather than from getting it from a stranger by boldly venturing outside, is now an ignorant misconception that is proving to be deadly!
FAILURE To Recognize the Undeniable Laws of Mathematics and the Previous Mistakes of Officials in Italy, Spain, UK, and Now the USA, will undoubtedly cause Covid19 Spread to Escalate and could prove Fatal for millions
The Massive error in Panic Reaction and Mandating Home Quarantining of Families by the Millions Before obtaining the Critical Testing results needed to identify the ‘Infected” percentage of family members, and instead forcing the Unknown mix of Infected/Non-infected families together, into Confinement(Lock-Down) and a much smaller Geographic space(their homes/averaging 12-2000 sq. foot)Has only served to benefit the life of the Virus; and It seems insuring a more Rapid and complete Spread executed through a concentrated, close proximity extended time frame of confinement for a minimum 14-28 day periods, is the result and having Disastrous effects, … Accelerating the Spread in rapid time, while simultaneously extending the efficiency of the contagion to nearly 100% of an infected Household!!
I work in the medical field and asked an Associate top Orthopedic Surgeon his opinion on what happens in a household if a typical family of 4 is mandated to go into Quarantine for 14 days, and say only 1 member is a positive/unknown carrier of the virus, yet sharing the same contact/surface touching(Kitchen/Bathrooms/livingroom, etc.) and the close proximity breathing that is shared within smaller geography of average home(say 1200 to 2000 sq. feet), and he replied given the false sense of security between family members, and Not knowing who the “infected member” is, you would likely have 100% transmission to all 4 members of the household within 4 to 7 days!…Then whenever the designated member or members of that newly contaminated family is sent out, possibly not exhibiting symptoms yet, to get essentials such groceries, pharmacy, or home supply store etc. into the Public sector, your just increasing the strain on “Social Distancing”, and increasing the odds of “Community Spread”….The glaring fact remains, “social distancing” is Near impossible within the confines of a private home, and thus makes the term an Oxymoron…
If anyone doubts the sad truth of the detrimental impact this is having, simply examine the fact that most public gatherings, group interaction, or even violating the 6 foot rule of space has been virtually eliminated after Restaurants, bars, sporting events, theaters, etc. And all public meeting places were closed off from public access weeks ago, in major cities like in New York, NJ, Louisiana, Michigan, etc. yet then why does the “infected rate” continue to climb, and escalate at an Alarming rate? Because it’s now clear, the major percentage of contagion was never being spread out in the Public sector to start with, and actually is responsible for probably less than 20% of the transmission of the Virus! It clearly is being spread through the ideal environment, of what officials have ironically termed as ‘Safer at Home”(the real Hoax), and through close proximity transference, which is now 90%+ of the source of infection transmission!…In what I deem aptly to be labeled as “Cohabitation Spreading”.
**Common Sense Question: When out in Public, don’t you normally keep a more distant space between yourself and people you don’t know, compared to a relative? In contrast how close do you get at home to family members like your wife or child, especially if assuming they are safe, and not infected? Now add in the knowledge of Covid19 and advisories on keeping at least 6 feet apart from strangers, how much further away do you stay separated during any outside encounters in Public now? Exactly, probably a good safe distance, and then when being extra careful as to surfaces, washing hands after being outside in public, and avoiding touching your face, it should be quite clear the highest degree of spreading is not coming from the very limited exposure your having in the few times you venture out to the store for essentials, or to gas up the car! It’s clear the highest risk is when your going back home in lock down by spending 90% of your time in close proximity with 2, 3 or even 4 other human beings in your family, and since you have No way of knowing if they might already be infected without the Benefit of TESTING!
*It should now be Painfully Obvious that sending people home into Smaller confined spaces, Under “Stay at Home Orders”, Quarantines, or “Lock Down”, and under the False security of ”your home is the Only Safe Place” Without a Strict Protocol for “Safer Person to Person Distancing within the House, along with Common surface sharing disinfecting guidelines preferably provided by a infectious Disease Specialist, has become a Recipe for DISASTER!…It should be imperative to at least give families a strict protocol and guidelines to help protect themselves from the Risks of “Cohabitation Spread” until adequate testing can be established, which removes 90% of the risk, and yields intelligent quarantines that saves lives! Quarantine without the benefit of prior testing only serves the greater good if it’s a Family of One!
and while the term, “Social Distancing,” obviously refers “on the surface” to keeping people further apart out in public, in requesting families to just stay home, any benefits derived from widening the “space gap” between strangers is completely Lost/or Drowned out, by the detrimental impacts of “Making each home” an ideal Mini-incubation Center, yielding almost 100% infection rate between family members by confining them to their homes, Without the prior Knowledge of whether one or more members of that household is already a Carrier?((Minus the Vital “Infected Identity provided from TESTING!!”)) Kind of defeats the whole purpose of avoiding the Risk of Public exposure!//Why worry over the risk of catching something from a stranger outside, when you can simply catch it much easier from a family member in the safety and comfort of your own home!…*Remember this common fact: while we are all “individuals dispersed when out in public”, but what common trait do all of us share or at least 99% of us? We are all members of someone’s family and thus become a small community when returning home; and so percentage-wise when do all of us engage in and thus are exposed to more human contact, when out in public or at home? And now that the majority of Americans are no longer allowed to go to work and are being asked to spend that extra 8-10 hours instead at home, there is only one logical answer to that question…Now with Mandatory “stay at home” orders from Government authorities for prolonged periods of time(14 days or more) Home exposure to “Cohabitation Spread” has been exacerbated to the maximum//without the vital information Testing Provides that Justifies quarantines/isolation of the “Infected”.
To more clearly understand the disastrous path authorities currently have us on, simply employ reverse psychology, and ask yourself this question: If you were on the side of the Virus and were looking to Spread it more rapidly and more effectively, which requires simply getting people to stay physically “Closer Together”, would you secure greater transmission through very limited exposure between strangers given restricted public access who’s instincts are to avoid close contact with each other anyways? Or would it be more efficient to send the Virus home and pass it between family members while under a False sense of Trust and security being in close proximity, literally “on top of each other” during a concentrated Lock down of 14 to 28 days? The answer is obvious.
Proof in the Numbers on a Global Scale:
To Anyone of influence in Government or Journalism or News outlets, Please Heed this Common Sense Warning!, I believe the Dramatic difference between the Accelerated Case/ Climb and subsequent Fatality rates of 2.5% up to 9% Experienced so early after border penetrations in Italy, Spain, France, The UK, and Now The World’s New Epicenter for Covid19 spread, the USA, whereby our US Officials, the White House Administration, and State Governors are experiencing, “Steep Case Climb” Versus the much Lower numbers experienced in S. Korea,( with Fatality rate still Running near 1%/and Lower infected cases diminishing after 3months!) Is not by accident, but a result of putting the Cart before the Horse((Quarantines and Lock downs Before Testing Directives are gained, Versus the opposite!)), and a stark difference in preparation, timing, and primarily operational Repetitive, Practice! ** And Failure to recognize that the results of Quarantines after the benefits of Widespread testing are World’s apart from getting it backwards, whereby your in a “panic lock down mode” and playing a blind guessing game with people’s lives, chasing an unknown yet exponentially Growing “infected rate” with a labored unprepared Virus detection Testing rate=Literally defining the age old wisdom that a “Pound of prevention is superior to a thousand Tons of Cure!”
Challenges, Yet Facts that point to the eventual Solution
While asymptomatic carriers, either by virtue of built in antibodies, or some being younger and having more resilient immune systems, or because of the Virus’ own time-line of incubation, to heavier symptoms manifestation upon it’s host, after 5-8 days, yet all the while remaining contagious even weeks after apparent symptoms may be gone, yet unknown to both parties(infected/versus Non-infected)makes the challenges of this virus particularly daunting….***to keep it simple, the inevitable victory and eventual solution to defeating this formidable threat still lies in ultimately Keeping the Infected Separated from the Non-infected, just long enough to out run the active period of the virus…which typically within an infected Host is either determined within a 28 day period, and by virtue of one of three potential endings…1, the host overcomes the symptoms through immune strength and his own antibodies and tests negative finally after 3 to 4 weeks following initial contraction, or 2. they succumb to the virus, especially the elderly, or if previously suffering another ailment and their respiratory system fails yielding rapid fatality under severe Pneumonia type characteristics(drowning in lung fluid infusion)sometimes within days, but usually within a few weeks of contracting it, and 3rd within the active cycle of either of the 2 previous options the virus is transferred to another Host to begin the whole cycle over again….Keeping this Simple set of Facts and Critical time-line within our Focus now becomes Vital to containing the numbers and rate of spread! Or if we hope to get ahead of the rate of spread, or at least slow it down within the critical time frame needed to establish a Competent network of efficient widespread Testing.** Then we Must change the mode of operation that currently exists and is failing miserably in Major cities like NY, LA/California, Detroit, New Orleans, and others that are falling in line….*Because if you follow their current rates of “Case Discovery Climb” and subsequent fatality rate, it puts us on collision course for a mortality total before this all ends that is Unacceptable….
In Conclusion:
We need to put the best medical minds together with some related Mathematicians that are skilled in forward statistical analysis…It will require if you think this through, some basic Common sense applications that admittedly have been lacking….Such as, if you were going to Place a Blanket request upon the public, to self quarantine, involving any households of more than 1 member in the house…would it not be a rudimentary advisement to go beyond just suggesting to wash their hands more regularly, an cover your face when sneezing or coughing? In keeping the dynamics of ultimately beating this Virus and it’s lethal spreading simple and strait forward, to achieve keeping those infected Separated from those Not yet infected, it will obviously require some Strict discipline to buy us very Valuable time until the Identity of those 2 Diametrically Opposed groups can be reliably confirmed through testing. The following common sense suggestions seem vital to apply:
1. You would Provide a written out a strict Protocol, a Guideline for all members within the home, outlining basic distancing rules within the home as provided by Medical Professionals who already deal in caring for Covid19 patients in Close proximity…
2. Maintain occupancy rules that keep members separated by rooms for maximum amounts of time, eating in separate rooms, bathroom shifts, phone communication, versus person to person or at least talking through closed door separations that prevent close breathing near each other.
3. Rotating Shifts of time to be home, to extend separation times to reduce human contact by walks, or bike riding, taking a drive, etc. anything allowed that can create more separation within the home! Or if another residence, a vacant 2nd property, or anything providing separation for 2-4 weeks just enough to confirm members do not have the virus.
4. Also honest observation of each member to help self police/identify as soon as possible if a member of the house is exhibiting early symptoms, and if so, then as best possible quarantine that member to a separate room/with easy access to the bathroom, and then be careful to service food/water separately with protective interaction only, while taking care to monitor symptoms and if it becomes severe enough, then sending he/she into Dr. care/ or hospital…These are just some of the suggested precautions that families should have been admonished to do in absence of Clinical Testing for infected identification, and yet still need to implement now, until the Testing Access becomes available
5. **Proof this is effective and an important part of conquering this adversary that currently threatens our economy, our health, and our very lives…Here is a Key Example: Recently just about 2 nights ago Don Lemon on CNN, interviewed a Married Couple, both Doctors, She an ER Physician and He and Anesthesiologist, with 2 children, whereby she had already moved down into the basement, only communicated with her husband by talking through the closed door or by phone, they ate in separate rooms and shared strict bathroom shifts and purposely did not venture into each other’s rooms or space, and only one parent, the husband interacted with the children, to protect them as He was in a far less risky occupation given that most elective surgeries have been postponed, whereas being an ER Doctor, she is on the Front Lines of Battle in dealing with potential Corona Victims on a daily basis under high exposure…But they both made it clear, these strict disciplinary measures made sense in mitigating Spread risk and to protect their own family, just temporarily, to buy time until Covid19 Testing is more readily available, thus removing the mystery or risk in not knowing if there is a threat of infection within the Family or Not!
Physician’s Endorsement Legend:
1. *Dr Andre Anaya ER Medicine Physician Fresno- California
2. *Dr Ed Romano DDS “Aesthetic Smiles” NJ.
3. *Dr. Trevor Neal Head Physician Advanas Foot/ Ankle Specialists Indiana
4. *Dr. Marshall Miles Cosmetic an Plastic Surgery, Allentown Penn
5. *Dr.William G.Kearns-President/Chief Scientific Officer AdvaGenix(Medical Genetics)Maryland
6. *Dr John Wolf. Jr. MD Internal Medicine Cenegenics Certified, Florida
7. *Dr.George Ibraheim. DO. Medical Director, Internal Medicine, Cardiologist, an Osteopathic Physician, Florida
8. *Rose Zegarra PA-C- Primary Care, Endocrinology, an Dermatology, Florida
9. *DC. David Abott-Retired 35 year Practice Chiropractic, Brooklyn, NY
10. *Dr Daniel Dilip Bio-Formulations, Antiviral Specialist Florida
**Please, I greatly appreciate your attention to the entire contents of this letter, and I hope you are able to grasp its value and merits, as I truly believe that both acting on it’s factual evidence, as well as passing it’s mission statement on to others of like influence can ultimately save lives, and help us all in the common goal of defeating this formidable and indiscriminate, and Lethal enemy that kills without emotion, and certainly transfers itself between humans, via both family members or strangers in public with equal impunity…